>But this is wrong! If published research is true 30% of the time, but people's intuitions (on questions research is published on) are so only say 10% of the time, then going with published papers is a better choice.
Only if "people's intuitions" are true on a less than a "published research" percentage.
Why on Earth would you assume your intuitions are better than professionals combining intuition with methodology in good faith?
The article we're commenting on (which you can discard more easily than I) describes a study you can reproduce easily to prove it to yourself. Why don't you?
Indeed, technical error on my part. The parent commenter is only "most likely wrong" given the psychological literature on this is most likely right. Some of it you can prove to yourself by experiment such as by following along this ASAP science video[1] (it's essentially Kanehman's Thinking Fast and Slow in accessible form).
Only if "people's intuitions" are true on a less than a "published research" percentage.